Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018552 0.021063 0.023798 0.026999 0.030646 0.034673 0.039463
2025-03-09 0.014737 0.018208 0.022327 0.027582 0.034120 0.042004 0.052257
2025-03-16 0.012311 0.016101 0.020865 0.027308 0.035821 0.046719 0.061788
2025-03-23 0.011033 0.015118 0.020503 0.028145 0.038756 0.053032 0.073809
2025-03-30 0.009493 0.013534 0.019082 0.027285 0.039168 0.055855 0.081233
2025-04-06 0.008417 0.012433 0.018148 0.026916 0.040113 0.059368 0.089842
2025-04-13 0.007358 0.011222 0.016900 0.025907 0.039939 0.061139 0.095924
2025-04-20 0.006935 0.010900 0.016912 0.026753 0.042597 0.067344 0.109380
2025-04-27 0.006525 0.010549 0.016826 0.027412 0.044987 0.073305 0.122997
2025-05-04 0.006199 0.010292 0.016852 0.028229 0.047677 0.079954 0.138372
2025-05-11 0.005704 0.009706 0.016284 0.027991 0.048556 0.083638 0.148992
2025-05-18 0.005312 0.009253 0.015890 0.027997 0.049826 0.088065 0.161306
2025-05-25 0.004876 0.008694 0.015279 0.027594 0.050379 0.091362 0.172070
2025-06-01 0.004631 0.008451 0.015200 0.028136 0.052701 0.098068 0.189938
2025-06-08 0.004290 0.008002 0.014706 0.027860 0.053453 0.101913 0.202660
2025-06-15 0.004138 0.007887 0.014812 0.028715 0.056433 0.110240 0.225090
2025-06-22 0.003776 0.007341 0.014059 0.027836 0.055922 0.111698 0.233664
2025-06-29 0.003511 0.006958 0.013585 0.027460 0.056369 0.115081 0.246555
2025-07-06 0.003196 0.006450 0.012823 0.026430 0.055371 0.115406 0.252898
2025-07-13 0.003113 0.006403 0.012974 0.027293 0.058416 0.124429 0.279238
2025-07-20 0.003014 0.006315 0.013033 0.027966 0.061110 0.132941 0.305314
2025-07-27 0.002937 0.006264 0.013164 0.028800 0.064229 0.142660 0.335189
2025-08-03 0.002766 0.005999 0.012819 0.028557 0.064911 0.146999 0.352822